The Long Cycle of Real Estate

The experience of the 1985-93 boom/bust in real estate has left industry players nervous about when it might happen again. This paper examines the possible causes and the periodicity of such major real estate cycles. A search of the literature for return evidence from this century suggests that there was only one other period of negative total returns for national real estate - the late 1920s and early 1930s. The evidence suggests that both periods of negative returns were caused by excessive levels of new construction, induced by an unusual rise in NOI, which in turn was the result of an inflation spike in the general level of prices. Evidence from even earlier periods suggests a periodicity for such real estate boom/busts of some 50 to 60 years. Perhaps the caution of today's Federal Reserve Board about containing inflation means that we will not likely see another boom/bust period for real estate during the remainder of our careers.

Chiral Fermi liquid approach to neutron matter

We present a microscopic calculation of the complete quasiparticle interaction, including central as well as noncentral components, in neutron matter from high-precision two- and three-body forces derived within the framework of chiral effective field theory. The contributions from two-nucleon forces are computed in many-body perturbation theory to first and second order (without any simplifying approximations). In addition we include the leading-order one-loop diagrams from the N2LO chiral three-nucleon force, which contribute to all Fermi liquid parameters except those associated with the center-of-mass tensor interaction. The relative-momentum dependence of the quasiparticle interaction is expanded in Legendre polynomials up to L=2. Second-order Pauli blocking and medium polarization effects act coherently in specific channels, namely for the Landau parameters f_1, h_0 and g_0, which results in a dramatic increase in the quasiparticle effective mass as well as a decrease in both the effective tensor force and the neutron matter spin susceptibility. For densities greater than about half nuclear matter saturation density \rho_0, the contributions to the Fermi liquid parameters from the leading-order chiral three-nucleon force scale in all cases approximately linearly with the nucleon density. The largest effect of the three-nucleon force is to generate a strongly repulsive effective interaction in the isotropic spin-independent channel. We show that the leading-order chiral three-nucleon force leads to an increase in the spin susceptibility of neutron matter, but we observe no evidence for a ferromagnetic spin instability in the vicinity of the saturation density \rho_0. This work sets the foundation for future studies of neutron matter response to weak and electromagnetic probes with applications to neutron star structure and evolution.Comment: 21 pages, 6 figures, 5 table

A Microseismometer for Terrestrial and Extraterrestrial Applications

The scientific and technical requirements of extraterrestrial seismology place severe demands on instrumentation. Performance in terms of sensitivity, stability, and frequency band must match that of the best terrestrial instruments, at a fraction of the size, mass, and power. In addition, this performance must be realized without operator intervention in harsh temperature, shock, and radiation environments. These constraints have forced us to examine some fundamental limits of accelerometer design in order to produce a small, rugged, sensitive seismometer. Silicon micromachined sensor technology offers techniques for the fabrication of monolithic, robust, compact, low-power and -mass accelerometers. However, currently available sensors offer inadequate sensitivity and bandwidth. Our implementation of an advanced silicon micro machined seismometer is based on principles developed at JPL for high-sensitivity position sensor technology. The use of silicon micro machining technology with these new principles should enable the fabrication of a 10(exp -11) g sensitivity seismometer with a bandwidth of at least 0.01 to 20 Hz. The low Q properties of pure single-crystal silicon are essential in order to minimize the Brownian thermal noise limitations generally characteristic of seismometers with small proof masses. A seismometer consists of a spring-supported proof mass and a transducer for measuring its motion. For long period motion a position sensor is generally used, for which the displacement is proportional to the ground acceleration. The mechanical sensitivity can be increased either by increasing the proof mass or decreasing the spring stiffness, neither of which is desirable for planetary applications. Our approach has been to use an ultra sensitive capacitive position sensor with a sensitivity of better than 10(exp -13) m/Hz(exp 1/2). This allows the use of a stiffer suspension and a smaller proof mass. We have built several prototypes using these principles, and tests show that these devices can exhibit performance comparable to state-of-the-art instruments

Parametric Four-Photon Generation of Picosecond Light at High ConversionEfficiency

Parametric four-photon interaction in isotropic media was studied in the saturation range. Up to 10% of input laser energy could be converted into a broad frequency spectrum ranging from the ultraviolet to the infrared. Parameters which influence the conversion efficiency are discussed